January 2025 Book Deal Trends

January 2025 saw a partial rebound in book deal activity after December’s slowdown, though debut authors still faced challenges, with just over 3% of all deals going to first-time writers—only slightly below October, because while the total number of debut deals dropped by nearly half from October’s peak (!!), the proportion of debut opportunities remained steady. Does this mean the shift was due to overall market contraction rather than a decline in publisher interest? I think so!

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December 2024 Book Deal Trends

Deal flow slowed significantly in December, with deals done dropping to less than half of November’s total and falling below September’s numbers.

Debut authors faced a record-quiet month. Categories that traditionally perform well for debuts—general adult fiction, thrillers, and audiobooks—lagged in December, as publishers prioritized established authors and genres like memoirs, business, and narrative-driven projects.

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November 2024 Book Deal Trends

November saw another increase in deal activity, with 2,224 deals, compared to 2,030 in October and 1,460 in September. The consistent rise suggests increased publishing activity as the year progresses, likely due to year-end submissions and planning for upcoming releases. It may be too early to call it, but it looks as though…

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October 2024 Book Deal Trends

October saw a 75.3% increase in total deals compared to September, marking a significant boost in acquisition activity. This jump aligns with end-of-year budget pushes and publishers’ efforts to secure titles for upcoming catalog cycles. There was a marked rise in multi-book contracts, particularly within Adult Fiction, as publishers prioritized securing multiple works from popular authors. This shift reflects a strategy to build sustained reader engagement and capitalize on consistent brand recognition through bundled deals. Finally, the demand for internationally appealing titles surged, with an emphasis on Adult Fiction and niche non-fiction in the Other category. This focus on cross-cultural appeal and diverse markets indicates publishers’ strategic efforts to reach global audiences with adaptable, widely relatable content.

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September 2024 Book Deal Trends

This September, Fiction, particularly thrillers and mystery, continues to dominate, while non-fiction in business, lifestyle, and self-help is seeing strong demand across multiple regions. Children’s literature remains vibrant, especially in middle-grade and YA, with a focus on series potential and diverse voices.

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