January 2025 saw a partial rebound in book deal activity after December’s slowdown, though debut authors still faced challenges, with just over 3% of all deals going to first-time writers—only slightly below October, because while the total number of debut deals dropped by nearly half from October’s peak (!!), the proportion of debut opportunities remained steady. Does this mean the shift was due to overall market contraction rather than a decline in publisher interest? I think so!
The name of the debut game this month? “Series Potential.” Adult Fiction (General, Romance, and Thriller) dominated debut acquisitions, while Young Adult held steady and Middle Grade remained limited. No debut deals were recorded in Audiobooks or Children's Picture Books, and Non-fiction saw minimal representation, making it a tougher space for first-time authors.
Fiction remained the driving force behind January’s market, particularly in international rights, with France, Spain, and Italy leading foreign acquisitions—reinforcing Europe’s position as a key translation market. Meanwhile, agencies specializing in multi-book and audiobook deals remained highly active, while non-fiction struggled to secure strong debut representation.
Sobering reminder: Publishers acquiring books now are likely targeting late 2025 to mid-2026 releases, meaning we won’t see the real-world results of these trends for another 12–24 months!
Month-over-Month Genre Trends (January 2025 vs. December 2024)
In January, Adult Fiction saw a strong recovery, rising almost 25% compared to December. This suggests publishers are refilling their pipelines post-holidays, with an emphasis on literary and world-building-heavy fiction, themes frequently mentioned in January’s deal descriptions. For writers, this signals that literary fiction and books with complex, immersive settings are back in demand.
Nonfiction also saw moderate growth, up just under 10%, month-over-month. This could be attributed to acquisitions of self-help, memoir, and business titles being positioned for late 2025 releases, especially as publishers gear up for potential election-related or current affairs narratives. Political and timely memoirs may be especially marketable as the year progresses. Who knows!
On the flip side, Children's Fiction dipped slightly. The dominance of multi-book deals (especially two-book agreements) in this category suggests publishers are continuing to commit to longer-term projects, making it a great time for authors with series potential to pitch.
Audiobooks experienced a drop, but this seems to reflect more of a post-peak slowdown after 2024 Q4’s surge, and not as sharp as previously thought. The trend over the past several months suggests audiobooks have stabilized, with ~80-100 deals per month moving forward. For audiobook authors, this indicates stability in the market.
Finally, other categories (including digital and film/TV rights) took the largest hit. Publishers appear to be temporarily deprioritizing format deals in favour of traditional book acquisitions, reflecting a general slowdown in digital rights and foreign rights sales early in the year. For writers with digital-first or film adaptation aspirations, this could signal a slower pace for these types of deals in early 2025!
Takeaways
Adult Fiction and Nonfiction are strong contenders for acquisition in 2025, especially with literary, world-building, and timely nonfiction themes.
Children’s Fiction remains steady, but series potential will be key for debut authors looking to stand out in the category.
Audiobooks are stabilizing at a healthy baseline.
Format-based deals (digital, film/TV) are in a temporary slowdown, meaning writers focusing on digital-first projects or film adaptations are practising real patience!
Top-Performing Subgenres
There’s strong global demand for Adult Fiction, so for my writer friends, if your book has broad international appeal, now is the time to highlight its global market potential when pitching.
Publishers are still keen on Romance.
While debut fiction was represented, publishers seem to be focusing more on multi-book deals or established authors. If you're a debut author, positioning your book as part of a multi-book deal, general fiction, or in a high-performing subgenre (such as romance or thriller) could give you an edge.
Lower-Performing Subgenres
At this moment in time, traditional print formats remain the priority, so self-publishing or hybrid strategies might be stronger options for authors considering digital-first.
Standalone Thrillers and Mysteries weren’t snapped up. While thriller and mystery themes were prevalent, it appears as though publishers may be more interested in series over standalone novels.
Debut Authors
Just over 3% of book deals done in January were with debut authors. This reflects a slight rebound from December but based on quantity of deals, still places debut authors well below the peak seen in September-November. Since overall acquisitions are down, this signals that publishers are remaining slow and steady with their acquisitions, and while they remain selective about debut acquisitions, they’re still interested in break out names in fiction, traditional print, especially in general and literary fiction.
Few non-fiction debut deals in January, suggest that publishers are prioritizing established voices in this category.
Agencies and International Market Trends
In January, several agencies remained active, securing major deals across fiction, non-fiction, and international rights. Consistent stand outs such as 2 Seas closed multiple deals across territories, and agencies such as Jane Rotrosen, saw success selling fiction and multi-book deals.
Agencies specializing in global rights drove strong international sales, acquiring foreign rights across multiple genres, from literary fiction to children’s literature.
Multi-book deals were a consistent trend, particularly in fiction genres like romance, mystery, and fantasy.
Geography
Europe dominated January’s international acquisitions, with strong interest from France, Spain, Italy, and Germany. This trend points to growing demand for culturally adaptable fiction and high-concept literary titles.